GSB 7.0 Standardlösung

Traffic & Adaptation (Main Topic 103)

How are traffic flows influenced by climate-induced functional impairments or outages and which measures can be taken to mitigate related damages?

The picture shows the main topic structure of the topic area Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Main topic structure of the topic area Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the ongoing research phase (from 2020 onwards)

While the main topic Transport Infrastructure & Adaptation focuses on transport infrastructure, the key aspect of the main topic Traffic & Adaptation is the traffic itself. Works include considerations regarding the third part of the climate impact analysis, i.e. the relative significance of traffic on different routes of the road, railway and waterway network (criticality analysis).

In addition, selected parts of the transport system undergo virtual “stress testing”, i.e. they are confronted with constructed scenarios of extraordinary events, such as lengthy closures following floods. This enables the researchers to determine specific consequences of extraordinary events. Furthermore, they study the degree of sensitivity of lorries, ships and waggons to potential effects of climate change and ways in which vehicle fleets have been or might be adapted in the future.

Criticality of transport systems

In the transport systems of railways, roads and waterways, not all routes are of equal importance. The most significant corridors and nodes are covered by the “Trans-European Transport Network” (TEN-T). The experts within the main topic Traffic & Adaptation develop parameters to evaluate sections of the railway, road and waterway networks on a national or regional level. Previously, only metrics related to traffic volumes were considered and used as an indicator for the impacts of particular disruptions on traffic. Today, the researchers are developing new indices allowing for a more differentiated view of traffic flows. For example, they check whether there are alternative routes or transport modes to reach affected locations or to ship particular goods. The new parameters allow for a better reflection of specific regional and spatial planning concerns. The index map products feed into the Integrated Climate Impact Assessment.

Stress test scenarios

Irrespective of climate change, extreme weather conditions, including so far unobserved phenomena, can occur. By setting up so-called stress tests, modellers construct extreme events in order to make cost effects as well as cross-modal impacts, such as resulting modal shifts, more tangible. Under the prior research phase (2016–2019) already, the results of an exemplary stress test in the Middle Rhine Region (Inland Focus Regions) encountered a lot of interest. Building on these experiences, the researchers are now developing further scenarios and improving their model approaches, each in close collaboration with the topic area Transport Economic Analyses.

Vulnerability of vehicle fleets

Which properties of the vehicle fleets are determinant factors for their sensitivity to climate change impacts? Which adaptations of the vehicle fleets, if any, are feasible and reasonable? These questions serve as a framework for the scientists to prepare appropriate studies on the transport sector, i.e. regarding the sensitivity of the vehicle fleets. A lot of ideas have already been identified, for example, to implement technical solutions reducing the exposure of the inland vessel fleet to low water conditions. Also for lorries and rail vehicles, numerous efforts have been or can be undertaken in the future, such as air conditioning systems or novel materials to cope with increasing heat stress.
The experts bundle this and other information that is already available in different expert authorities. Their work is flanked by interviews, for example with companies from the logistics sector. The aim is to describe causal chains and to determine the need for adaptation in the context of climate change, which is yet another component of the climate impact analysis, being the guiding principle of collaboration within the main topic Climate Change & Extremes.

Coordination

N. N.
Federal Logistics and Mobility Office (BALM)

Dr. Enno Nilson
Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)
Nilson@bafg.de

Participating institutions:

  • BASt
  • DZSF/EBA
  • BAW
  • BfG
  • BSH
  • DWD
  • BALM