GSB 7.0 Standardlösung

Climate Change & Extremes (Main Topic 101)

How and where – at a regional level – do climate change and extreme weather events translate into increased natural hazards for transport and transport infrastructure?

The picture shows the main topic structure of the topic area Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Main topic structure of the topic area Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the ongoing research phase (from 2020 onwards)

The main topic Climate Change & Extremes assesses to what extent the transport system is affected by climate change, thereby covering the first step of the climate impact analysis, i.e. exposure analysis. Its focus is on selected climate influences and impacts that have effectively damaged transport infrastructure or restricted traffic in the past or might bring about related damages or restrictions in the future.

Impacts and underlying climate influences addressed are:

Climate influencesClimate impacts
  • Heat
  • Sea level rise
  • Heavy precipitation
  • Storm
  • Drought
  • Embankment fires
  • Erosion
  • Extreme waves
  • Gravitational massen movements
  • Flooding
  • Low water
  • Storm tides
  • Windthrow
  • Flash floods
  • Water quality

The relevance of the distinct climate influences and impacts varies according to the transport mode considered – railways, roads or waterways: For example, low water events have no direct effect on the operability of roads and rails, but they strongly interfere with waterway transport. Many other impacts, such as gravitational mass movements, in contrast, must be considered from a cross-modal perspective.

Technical implementation

The scientists investigate the climate influences and impacts and related disruptions to the transport system. Based on observational data and model simulations, they conduct retrospective studies of interdependencies and the extent of past climate change over recent decades. Various climate impacts are clearly already affecting transport and transport infrastructure today, albeit with substantial regional differences. Assuming specific climate scenarios, the researchers also assess future potential atmospheric, hydrological and oceanographic changes. Comparing the past and the future climate helps us to shape our understanding of whether and where transport and its infrastructure might be more seriously affected by climate influences in the future.

Thereby, the research approach is basically in line with prior works carried out within the BMDV Network of Experts and other climate impact research programmes, thus ensuring coherence and comparability of the findings. Alongside these proven concepts, the BMDV Network of Experts also exploits new, enhanced and more extensive data bases and methods in a number of areas, delivering advances that are critical to the investigation of extreme events, for instance. Extreme events are very rare, short in time and limited to a local scale. Nevertheless, they can cause substantial damage, and their understanding is key to develop potential adaptation measures (Transport Infrastructure & Adaptation and Traffic & Adaptation). Studying the effects of extreme events requires very detailed data. For example, the analysis of flash floods relies on radar data and terrain information. At the same time, potential impacts of climate change must be studied over very long time periods (several decades) in order to detect lasting system changes. Given the vast amount of data volumes and computing resources required, a smart linkage of the different data is needed to obtain results that are of practical use. Similar challenges arise in the context of river floods, sea level rise, windthrow events and their related consequences.

Networking as a key to success

The researchers within this main topic use the technical data, methods and expertise available in the authorities involved, thereby enabling the DWD, BSH and BfG/BAW to gain a shared view of atmospheric, oceanographic and hydrological or hydrodynamic issues. The findings will then be transferred to the transport modes roads, railways and waterways by the BASt, DZSF/EBA and BAW and incorporated into the other main topics’ activities (Transport Infrastructure & Adaptation, Traffic & Adaptation, Integrated Climate Impact Assessment & User Dialogue).
Intensive networking, not only within, but also beyond the BMDV Network of Experts, is crucial. Key findings of the main topic Climate Change & Extremes are built into permanent, practice-oriented advisory services, such as the BMDV’s novel core service “Climate and Water” established within the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, the DAS. Offers like this are a requirement to provide long-term access to selected products of the BMDV Network of Experts throughout Germany.
In order to tailor the data and methods developed to subsequent applications in the best possible way, the scientists’ works follow existing policies, guidelines and glossaries, including among others the recommendations of the Federal Government’s Interministerial Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change (IMA A) outlined in the “Leitfaden für Klimawirkungs- und Vulnerabilitätsanalysen” (KWVA) (Guideline for climate impact and vulnerability analyses, available in German only). In addition, the experts maintain a dialogue with other working groups, such as the DAS network. They are also involved in further discussions, for example in the joint Federal Government/Federal State expert dialogue “Interpretation regionaler Klimamodelldaten” (Interpretation of regional climate model data). Furthermore, transport mode-specific findings from research activities, such as the RIVA project (“Risikoanalyse wichtiger Verkehrsachsen des Bundesfernstraßennetzes im Kontext des Klimawandels” – Risk analysis of key transit axes of the federal main road network in the context of climate change) are incorporated into the works.

Coordination

Dr. Enno Nilson
Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)
nilson@bafg.de

Dr. Nils H. Schade
Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH)
nils.schade@bsh.de

Dr. Andreas Walter
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
andreas.walter3@dwd.de

Participating institutions:

  • BASt
  • BAW
  • BfG
  • BSH
  • DWD
  • DZSF/EBA