GSB 7.0 Standardlösung

1. Research Phase 2016-2019

During the first research phase of the BMDV Network of Experts, the topic area Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation comprised nine main topics following a highly networked approach.

The picture shows the main topic structure of the topic area Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the research phase from 2016 to 2019 Main topic structure of the topic area Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the research phase from 2016 to 2019


Scenario Development


The main topic Scenario Development devised a framework for the analysis of climate -related changes, defining guidelines for the selection of scenarios, the composition of ensembles, observed time slices or bias adjustment. Furthermore, the researchers provided a consistent set of underlying data based on observational and projected data for the subsequent analyses and evaluated the change signals. The findings suggest that, in Germany, air temperatures will continue to rise and there will also be a tendency for the frequency and intensity of temperature extremes to increase. Precipitation patterns will change, resulting in more dry days in summer months. Detailed information on data, methods and findings of this main topic can be found in the Scenario Development final report and in the analysis framework (both available in German only). Change signals for selected climate indices are available via the Climate Atlas provided by the German Meteorological Service, the Deutscher Wetterdienst.


Climate Impact Analysis


The main topic Climate Impact Analysis developed the integrated climate impact analysis approach – a three-stage analytical scheme to assess the effects of climate change on transport and infrastructure. In the first stage, the researchers analyse the spatial exposure of transport infrastructures to climate influences and impacts. Different infrastructures, however, are not equally affected by changes in general climate conditions. Therefore, the second stage consists of a sensitivity analysis to explore how climate resilience is increased or decreased by route- or object-specific characteristics. The third step, called the criticality analysis, is to determine the relative importance of individual route sections within the context of the overall system. This enables the researchers to assess which sections are particularly critical with regard to passenger and freight transport in the event of climate-induced infrastructure interruptions. By taking an integrated perspective across these analyses, the experts can identify specific forms of traffic and infrastructures with increased adaptation needs. Further details on the works within this main topic are available in the Climate Impact Analysis final report (available in German only).


Flood Risks


This main topic analysed current and future hazards to the federal road, railway and waterway transport infrastructure caused by flood risks. In certain river regions existing tendencies of heavy winter rainfalls are still on the rise. River sections where winter floods are already prevalent today, therefore expect to be increasingly exposed to flood events in the future. Today, around 2% of the total German federal main road and around 1% of the railway network are located in floodplains of flood scenarios with a statistical probability to occur once in 100 years. In coastal areas, an accelerated rise in sea levels and altered tidal dynamics are expected. In general, mudflats are capable to grow up with rising sea levels. However, in case of rapidly rising sea levels, mudflat surface is expected to shrink since the natural adaptability of tidal flat morphology is limited by sediment supply. Detailed information on the works within this main topic is summarised in the Flood Risks final report (available in German only).


Storm Risks


The hurricanes of recent years have interrupted land traffic in entire regions, through windthrow for instance. Storms cause extremely high-water levels on coasts and in estuaries, threatening the safety of coastal structures and restricting navigation. Having identified inland regions that are prone to storm, the researchers built this information into German-wide risk index maps illustrating the wind throw risk for the federal transport infrastructure. In total, around 25% of the federal main road network and around 23% of the federal railway network are located in wooded areas leaving them exposed to the potential risk of windthrow. Within the analysis of meteorological conditions for the North Sea region, the scientists identified storms, classified them by their strength and depicted potential changes under a business as usual scenario. A detailed overview on the works within this main topic can be found in the Storm Risks final report (available in German only).


Landslides


The main topic Landslides focused on the identification of regions where the road and railway infrastructure is particularly exposed to gravitational mass movements. National index maps for the road and railway infrastructure were developed pointing out route sections with increased risks of mass movement. While slope stability mainly depends on the composition or quality of the subsoil and of the slope gradient, climate and extreme weather events may well have additional negative effects. Detailed information on the works within this main topic is summarised in the Landslides final report (available in German only).


Navigability and Water Quality


The main topic Navigability and Water Quality analysed and assessed extreme low water situations und the resulting traffic restrictions on federal waterways and conducted studies on water quality and riverbed state. Under a business as usual scenario, most gauging stations are expected to encounter an exacerbation of low water situations in terms of both length and intensity in the second half of the 21st century. Well-established hydraulic engineering techniques to cope with bottlenecks, such as dredging of sediments, may increasingly run up against their limits in future low water situations. The main topic also developed a model toolkit to determine soil erosion and sediment input into the waterway network, exemplified by the Elbe river, and investigated future shifts in water temperatures and water quality as a result of changing meteorological and hydrological patterns. For coastal areas a model scheme was set up to reflect the interplay of sea level rise and mudflat sedimentation by reference to geographically varying tidal parameters of stream velocity and water level. Further information on the works within this main topic are summarised in the Navigability and Water Quality final report (available in German only).


Anpassungsoptionen


The main topic Adaptation Options highlighted climate change-related adaptation needs in the transport sector, explored specific approaches to develop adaptation measures and designed a classification scheme for such efforts. Focus was given to the analysis of exemplary measures. Fact sheets and more detailed methodological explanations explore and illustrate the effects and/or implementation of the selected actions with the outcomes being described in in-depth profiles. The main topic’s main goal was to support decision-makers within the portfolio of the BMVI and transport operators in answering the questions of whether, when and to what extent adaptation measures are needed. Detailed information on the works within this main topic is summarised in the Adaptation Options final report (available in German only).


Coastal Focus Regions


The main topic Coastal Focus Regions explored to what extent the operation of transport infrastructure in proximity to the coast is influenced by alterations in meteorological, oceanographic, hydrodynamic and hydrological conditions, which adaptation measures are available und how appropriate information can support the decision-making process in terms of adequate adaptation options. Research works focused on tidal dynamics in the German Bight and on the management of the Kiel Canal under changing climatic conditions. The products developed rely on comprehensive assessments of observational, reanalysis and climate model data for the parameters of air pressure, wind, precipitation, sea condition, currents and sea levels in the Northern Sea and the Baltic Sea as well as on analysis of hydro-morphodynamic model data for the German Bight. Detailed information on data, methods and findings of this main topic can be found in the Coastal Focus Regions final report (available in German only).


Inland Focus Regions


In some German regions, local geological relief conditions and associated conflicts around use of space cause a high territorial concentration of transport infrastructures in narrowly defined risk zones. A case in point is the Middle Rhine region with its high relevance for the transport system, which was the object of a cross-modal stress test study conducted under the main topic to investigate potential effects of extreme weather-related traffic restrictions on cross-regional traffic flows. Extreme scenarios were constructed to model stress conditions for the transport system, which may arise, for example, in times of extremely lengthy low water events, flood situations or mass movements implying route closures or modal shifts. The main topic’s analysis aims to draw conclusions on the state of the transport system’s climate resilience considering shift potentials and alternative routes for passenger and freight transport. A detailed overview on the main topic’s works can be found in the Middle Rhine stress test (available in German only).